Box Score
BasketballAn objective approach to basketball analysis through the simplicity of the "Box Score" TM |
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Adjusted Win Loss Records:Why adjust wins and losses? What if your team is tied in the standings after 20 games with another team at identical 13-7 records? Who is the "better" team? What if your team played a more difficult schedule. By this, we mean that there are a) more road games and b) more games against better teams. Here is how we adjust the win/loss percentage.We weight every win and loss. Let's say you play a team at HOME and win. If that team has a road winning percent of .510 then your win is weighted by that value. If that team has a road winning percent of .167 then your win is worth less and is weighted by that lower value. Same thing goes for the road: If your team wins in a place where the opponent wins .800 then your team gets rewarded using that higher weight. Also, if your team wins on the road against a subpar team (let's say .450 at home for them) then your team is reward less. end of 2008 season 4 Sections: Broken Down as Follows: Eastern Conference - Adjusted W-L % See how the Eastern Conference breaks down with adjusted wins and losses. Western Conference - Adjusted W-L % See how the Western Conference breaks down with adjusted wins and losses. Divisonal Standings - Adjusted W-L % See how each division breaks down with adjusted wins and losses. Largest Change from Real to Adjusted All NBA teams sorted by percent change from real to adjusted, w/commentary. EASTERN CONFERENCE: Sorted by Adjusted Win-Loss PercentageWhat does this sort result mean?This could be the best way to rank the Eastern Conference teams to date. Sorted by Weighted W-L % EAST ------- ADJUSTED -------- ----- REAL ------ Change # Team GP W L PCT GB W L PCT in Wins - ---- -- -- -- --- -- -- -- --- ------ 1 BOS 82 66.6 15.4 .812 66 16 .805 + 0.6 2 DET 82 59.6 22.4 .727 7.0 59 23 .720 + 0.6 3 ORL 82 52.0 30.0 .634 14.6 52 30 .634 - 0.0 4 CLE 82 45.4 36.6 .554 21.2 45 37 .549 + 0.4 5 WAS 82 42.5 39.5 .518 24.2 43 39 .524 - 0.5 6 TOR 82 40.4 41.6 .492 26.2 41 41 .500 - 0.6 7 PHI 82 39.6 42.4 .483 27.0 40 42 .488 - 0.4 8 ATL 82 34.7 47.3 .423 31.9 37 45 .451 - 2.3 9 IND 82 33.6 48.4 .410 33.0 36 46 .439 - 2.4 10 NJN 82 32.2 49.8 .393 34.4 34 48 .415 - 1.8 11 CHI 82 31.2 50.8 .380 35.4 33 49 .402 - 1.8 12 CHA 82 29.9 52.1 .365 36.7 32 50 .390 - 2.1 13 MIL 82 23.7 58.3 .289 42.9 26 56 .317 - 2.3 14 NYK 82 21.0 61.0 .256 45.6 23 59 .280 - 2.0 15 MIA 82 12.5 69.5 .152 54.1 15 67 .183 - 2.5 WESTERN CONFERENCE: Sorted by Adjusted Win-Loss PercentageWhat does this sort result mean?This could be the best way to rank the Western Conference teams to date. Sorted by Weighted W-L %. WEST ------- ADJUSTED -------- ----- REAL ------ Change # Team GP W L PCT GB W L PCT in Wins - ---- -- -- -- --- -- -- -- --- ------ 1 SAS 82 60.6 21.4 .739 56 26 .683 + 4.6 2 LAL 82 59.9 22.1 .731 0.7 57 25 .695 + 2.9 3 NOK 82 59.7 22.3 .728 0.9 56 26 .683 + 3.7 4 HOU 82 58.5 23.5 .713 2.1 55 27 .671 + 3.5 5 PHX 82 57.5 24.5 .701 3.1 55 27 .671 + 2.5 6 UTA 82 56.1 25.9 .685 4.5 54 28 .659 + 2.1 7 DAL 82 54.1 27.9 .660 6.4 51 31 .622 + 3.1 8 DEN 82 52.0 30.0 .634 8.6 50 32 .610 + 2.0 9 GSW 82 49.7 32.3 .606 10.9 48 34 .585 + 1.7 10 POR 82 42.2 39.8 .515 18.4 41 41 .500 + 1.2 11 SAC 82 38.7 43.3 .471 21.9 38 44 .463 + 0.7 12 LAC 82 20.9 61.1 .255 39.7 23 59 .280 - 2.1 13 MEM 82 19.8 62.2 .241 40.8 23 59 .280 - 3.2 14 MIN 82 19.2 62.8 .235 41.4 21 61 .256 - 1.8 15 SEA 82 17.7 64.3 .215 42.9 20 62 .244 - 2.3 Divisional Standings: Sorted by Adjusted Win-Loss PercentageWhat does this sort result mean?This could be the best way to rank the Divisions to date. Sorted by Weighted W-L %. EASTERN CONFERENCE Atlantic ------- ADJUSTED -------- ----- REAL ----- Change # Team W L PCT GB W L PCT in Wins - ---- -- -- --- --- --- --- ---- ---- 1 BOS 66.6 15.4 .812 66 16 .805 +0.62 2 TOR 40.4 41.6 .492 26.2 41 41 .500 -0.62 3 PHI 39.6 42.4 .483 27.0 40 42 .488 -0.40 4 NJN 32.2 49.8 .393 34.4 34 48 .415 -1.76 5 NYK 21.0 61.0 .256 45.6 23 59 .280 -2.00 Central ------- ADJUSTED -------- ----- REAL ----- Change # Team W L PCT GB W L PCT in Wins - ---- -- -- --- --- --- --- ---- ---- 1 DET 59.6 22.4 .727 59 23 .720 +0.59 2 CLE 45.4 36.6 .554 14.2 45 37 .549 +0.39 3 IND 33.6 48.4 .410 26.0 36 46 .439 -2.42 4 CHI 31.2 50.8 .380 28.4 33 49 .402 -1.82 5 MIL 23.7 58.3 .289 35.9 26 56 .317 -2.30 SouthEast ------- ADJUSTED -------- ----- REAL ----- Change # Team W L PCT GB W L PCT in Wins - ---- -- -- --- --- --- --- ---- ---- 1 ORL 52.0 30.0 .634 52 30 .634 -0.03 2 WAS 42.5 39.5 .518 9.5 43 39 .524 -0.54 3 ATL 34.7 47.3 .423 17.3 37 45 .451 -2.31 4 CHA 29.9 52.1 .365 22.1 32 50 .390 -2.11 5 MIA 12.5 69.5 .152 39.5 15 67 .183 -2.52 WESTERN CONFERENCE NorthWest ------- ADJUSTED -------- ----- REAL ----- Change # Team W L PCT GB W L PCT in Wins - ---- -- -- --- --- --- --- ---- ---- 1 UTA 56.1 25.9 .685 54 28 .659 +2.13 2 DEN 52.0 30.0 .634 4.1 50 32 .610 +2.02 3 POR 42.2 39.8 .515 13.9 41 41 .500 +1.20 4 MIN 19.2 62.8 .235 36.9 21 61 .256 -1.77 5 SEA 17.7 64.3 .215 38.5 20 62 .244 -2.34 Pacific ------- ADJUSTED -------- ----- REAL ----- Change # Team W L PCT GB W L PCT in Wins - ---- -- -- --- --- --- --- ---- ---- 1 LAL 59.9 22.1 .731 57 25 .695 +2.91 2 PHX 57.5 24.5 .701 2.4 55 27 .671 +2.49 3 GSW 49.7 32.3 .606 10.2 48 34 .585 +1.69 4 SAC 38.7 43.3 .471 21.3 38 44 .463 +0.65 5 LAC 20.9 61.1 .255 39.0 23 59 .280 -2.13 SouthWest ------- ADJUSTED -------- ----- REAL ----- Change # Team W L PCT GB W L PCT in Wins - ---- -- -- --- --- --- --- ---- ---- 1 SAS 60.6 21.4 .739 56 26 .683 +4.58 2 NOK 59.7 22.3 .728 0.0 56 26 .683 +3.71 3 HOU 58.5 23.5 .713 1.2 55 27 .671 +3.46 4 DAL 54.1 27.9 .660 5.6 51 31 .622 +3.14 5 MEM 19.8 62.2 .241 39.9 23 59 .280 -3.20 Sorted by Percent Change from actual W-L PCTWhat does this sort result mean?(sorted on last column) If an average team (record wise) is near the top, they should make a run for the playoffs If an average team is in the middle or near the bottom, do not expect to see them in the playoffs If a good team (record wise)is near the top, they are locked in for playoffs, and could even rise higher in standings If a good team is in the middle, expect them to remain where they are for the rest of the season If a good team is near the bottom, they may still make playoffs but expect a drop in the standings If a bad team (record wise)is near the top, expect them to challenge for that final playoff spot If a bad team is in the middle or near the bottom, expect their record to drop even further ----- REAL ----- ---- ADJUSTED ---- % CHANGE # TEAM W L PCT W L PCT FROM REAL - ---- -- -- --- --- --- --- ------ 1 SAS 56 26 .683 60.6 21.4 .739 +5.6% 2 NOK 56 26 .683 59.7 22.3 .728 +4.5% 3 HOU 55 27 .671 58.5 23.5 .713 +4.2% 4 DAL 51 31 .622 54.1 27.9 .660 +3.8% 5 LAL 57 25 .695 59.9 22.1 .731 +3.6% 6 PHX 55 27 .671 57.5 24.5 .701 +3.0% 7 UTA 54 28 .659 56.1 25.9 .685 +2.6% 8 DEN 50 32 .610 52.0 30.0 .634 +2.5% 9 GSW 48 34 .585 49.7 32.3 .606 +2.1% 10 POR 41 41 .500 42.2 39.8 .515 +1.5% 11 SAC 38 44 .463 38.7 43.3 .471 +0.8% 12 BOS 66 16 .805 66.6 15.4 .812 +0.8% 13 DET 59 23 .720 59.6 22.4 .727 +0.7% 14 CLE 45 37 .549 45.4 36.6 .554 +0.5% 15 ORL 52 30 .634 52.0 30.0 .634 -0.0% 16 PHI 40 42 .488 39.6 42.4 .483 -0.5% 17 WAS 43 39 .524 42.5 39.5 .518 -0.7% 18 TOR 41 41 .500 40.4 41.6 .492 -0.8% 19 NJN 34 48 .415 32.2 49.8 .393 -2.1% 20 MIN 21 61 .256 19.2 62.8 .235 -2.2% 21 CHI 33 49 .402 31.2 50.8 .380 -2.2% 22 NYK 23 59 .280 21.0 61.0 .256 -2.4% 23 CHA 32 50 .390 29.9 52.1 .365 -2.6% 24 LAC 23 59 .280 20.9 61.1 .255 -2.6% 25 MIL 26 56 .317 23.7 58.3 .289 -2.8% 26 ATL 37 45 .451 34.7 47.3 .423 -2.8% 27 SEA 20 62 .244 17.7 64.3 .215 -2.8% 28 IND 36 46 .439 33.6 48.4 .410 -3.0% 29 MIA 15 67 .183 12.5 69.5 .152 -3.1% 30 MEM 23 59 .280 19.8 62.2 .241 -3.9% - ---- -- -- --- --- --- --- ------ # TEAM W L PCT W L PCT FROM REAL ----- REAL ----- ---- ADJUSTED ---- % CHANGE |
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Box Score
Basketball
An objective approach to basketball analysis through the simplicity of the "Box Score" TM
All contents copyright © 2006, 2007, Greg W. Lowe. All rights reserved. |