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Box Score Basketball An objective approach to basketball analysis through the simplicity of the "Box Score" ^TM
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ARH Strength of Schedule: There are 3 sections. First section shows how difficult the schedule has been for each team so far in the season. The second section shows how difficult the remaining schedule is for each team. Finally, we take the difference between the two values. (last section is repeated after combining both conferences for complete NBA ranking) What is ARH Strength of Schedule? It stands for Adjusted Road-Home Strength of Schedule (of games played). ARHSS is similar to averaging all of a team's opponent's winning percentages. But instead we take that specific opponent winning % for home or road games, depending if the game was played at home or on the road for such an opponent. We also remove the opponent's wins and losses against that paticular team, so only the opponent's games against the rest of the league are considered. Example (as of 1/15/06): Orlando is 3-14 on road and 9-9 at home. Teams get .235 averaged in if they were home when they played Orlando (Orlando's road winning %) and .500 averaged in if they were on the road when they played Orlando (Orlando's home winning %). Examine the strength of Schedule for each team, Sorted by each Conference: 1. Games Played by Conference 2. Games Remaining by Conference 3. Difference by Conference All Teams - NBA - Difference between remaining games & past 4. Difference Sorted by Division: 5. Divisional Analysis due to ARH end of 2008 season 1. Games Played ARH Strength of Schedule: by Conference What this means: Weighted strength of schedule for games played for each team in the NBA. * For HOME games played, weighted on opponent's road winning %. * For ROAD games played, weighted on opponent's home winning %. Sorted from highest to lowest ARH: having a high ARH means the team has had a tough schedule which should make the evaluation of their ability better than their record appears. (NOTE: Standard deviations are calculated from the 'means' of each conference) GAMES PLAYED (sorted Toughest-to-Easiest in games played) # TEAM ARH StdDev - ---- ---- ------ 1 MIL .501 +1.04 2 MIA .503 +1.26 3 CLE .498 +0.60 4 PHI .497 +0.59 5 CHI .498 +0.60 6 NYK .501 +0.99 7 CHA .497 +0.48 8 TOR .494 +0.18 9 NJN .495 +0.31 10 WAS .491 -0.13 11 ATL .487 -0.62 12 IND .485 -0.81 13 ORL .486 -0.74 14 DET .479 -1.52 15 BOS .473 -2.24 WESTERN CONFERENCE GAMES PLAYED (sorted Toughest-to-Easiest in games played) # TEAM ARH StdDev - ---- ---- ------ 1 SEA .516 +1.52 2 MIN .514 +1.10 3 POR .511 +0.71 4 LAC .516 +1.60 5 SAC .512 +0.85 6 LAL .504 -0.69 7 NOK .507 -0.10 8 GSW .504 -0.60 9 MEM .511 +0.54 10 SAS .507 -0.10 11 DAL .503 -0.85 12 PHX .501 -1.30 13 DEN .500 -1.33 14 HOU .507 -0.18 15 UTA .501 -1.16 2. Games Remaining ARH Strength of Schedule: by Conference What this means: Weighted strength of schedule for remaing games for each team in the NBA. * For upcomming HOME games, weighted on opponent's road winning %. * For upcomming ROAD games, weighted on opponent's home winning %. Sorted from lowest to highest ARH: having a low ARH means the team has a favorable remaining schedule which should make the evaluation of the rest of their season better than their current record appears. (NOTE: Standard deviations are calculated from the 'means' of each conference) EASTERN CONFERENCE GAMES REMAINING (sorted from Easiest-to-toughest in remaining schedules) # TEAM ARH StdDev - ---- ---- ------ No data WESTERN CONFERENCE GAMES REMAINING (sorted from Easiest-to-toughest in remaining schedules) # TEAM ARH StdDev - ---- ---- ------ No data 3. Difference in ARH Games Played and ARH Games Remaining: by Conference What this means: Sorted by difference between the strength of games remaining and the strength of games already played. The larger the difference in value, the larger in difference of "ease" in remaining games compared to the games already played. You should expect teams in the top third to increase their winning % in their remaining games. Likewise, expect teams in the bottom third have less success in their remaing games. One way to look at this: If you want to determine if your favorite team will catch another in the standings, see if your team has a much higher value below. (NOTE: Standard deviations are calculated from the 'means' of each conference) EASTERN CONFERENCE FUTURE ARH MINUS PAST ARH = F-P [The more positive, the better] # TEAM F-P StdDev - ---- ----- ------ No Data WESTERN CONFERENCE FUTURE ARH MINUS PAST ARH = F-P [The more positive, the better] # TEAM F-P StdDev - ---- ----- ------ No data 4. Difference in ARH Games Played and ARH Games Remaining What this means: Sorted by difference between the strength of games remaining and the strength of games already played. The larger the difference in value, the larger in difference of "ease" in remaining games compared to the games already played. You should expect teams in the top third to increase their winning % in their remaining games. Likewise, expect teams in the bottom third have less success in their remaing games. One way to look at this: If you want to determine if your favorite team will catch another in the standings, see if your team has a much higher value below. (Note: Stand Deviation calculated on league mean) FUTURE ARH MINUS PAST ARH = F-P [The more positive, the better] # TEAM F-P StdDev - ---- ----- ------ No Data 5. Expected GAIN/LOSS due to ARH Strength of Schedule in Remaing Games What this means: This is the "Game Catcher" Matrix. We use the difference in the team's ARH for past & future games, then compare it to each team within the division. We then multiply the result by the remaining games. This yields the expected GAIN/LOSS in games due to the team's road/home strength of schedule in remaining games against such a team. You can cross reference your team with others in the division and see if your team will gain (positive) or lose (negative) due to the comparative strengths of schedules. NOTE: This does not incorporate that ability of play of a team. It is useful in comparing two teams of equal ability in order to see if one can expect a gain or drop in the W-L column. To make such a comparison of teams not in the same division, get the Difference numbers for each team, then take the difference of those two numbers. Multiply that number by the remaining games. Example: Compare TEAM "A" that has a +0.05 Difference (in ARH Games Played and ARH Games Remaining) and TEAM "B" that has a -0.03 Difference. The magnitude difference between these two numbers is +0.08. Assume 60 games left [60 times +0.08] = 4.8, which would mean that TEAM A should gain on TEAM B by about 5 games simply due to the remaining strength of schedule (only). Atlantic Division team GR vs BOS vs NJN vs NYK vs PHI vs TOR ---- -- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ no data Central Division team GR vs CHI vs CLE vs DET vs IND vs MIL ---- -- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ no data Southeast Division team GR vs ATL vs CHA vs MIA vs ORL vs WAS ---- -- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ no data WESTERN CONFERENCE Northwest Division team GR vs DEN vs MIN vs POR vs SEA vs UTA ---- -- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ no data Pacific Division team GR vs GSW vs LAC vs LAL vs PHX vs SAC ---- -- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ no data Southwest team GR vs DAL vs HOU vs MEM vs NOK vs SAS ---- -- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ no data
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Box Score Basketball An objective approach to basketball analysis through the simplicity of the "Box Score" ^TM All contents copyright © 2006, 2007, Greg W. Lowe. All rights reserved.